Old Weird Ward
Unless otherwise noted, that which is posted here is opinion, which is protected by the First Amendment to the US Constitution. If you don't like my opinions, go somewhere else. Nobody is forcing you to actually read this drivel.
The presumption exists that you can read at all.
That may be a large assumption.
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Thursday, March 11, 2004
- - - - - Iran's Turn Next? - - - - -
There's a certain amount of logic, and sentiment, to taking on Iran, now that Iraq is no longer a military factor in the Middle East.
Of course, there's a certain litlle realist voice saying to OWW, "Don't be so damned casual about that, Idiot!"
Iran is not Iraq. There is a large, vocal, visible Loyal Opposition in Iran. Whatever opposition there was in Iraq, Hussein shot/gassed/knifed/whatever right smartly. I believe that the Iranian people, being somewhat less cowed, would be much more likely to resist than the Iraqis were. The Iranians are actively working on nukes, and may even have weapons (extremely low probability at this point.)
Prof. Elio Bonazzi has an idea whose time may have come: Fund and encourage that opposition, as he suggests in this article.
Simply declaring that the only U.S. policy towards Iran is regime change, and enforcing it at every level in the administration, would provoke shock waves in Tehran. A resolute and determined U.S. administration could release part of Iran's frozen assets, seized during the hostage crisis of 1979, and use them to fund the Iranian opposition movement, inside and outside of the country. The Islamic regime has lost popular support, and survives only thanks to a very efficient repressive apparatus, exactly like the Communist regimes in eastern Europe before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Imposing sanctions and isolating the regime would provide the final blow needed to overthrow the mullahs.
The above paragraph summarizes a fairly complex notion. The entire article is worth reading, and worth some careful thought. One of the subjects of the "careful thought" would be the possibility of unintended consequences, for instance, the possibility of civil war.
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